Management of Digital Innovation

Innovation strategy

Planning (Causation)

 
Expected returns
  • Discounted cash flow methods
    • Net Present Value (NPV): Expected cash inflows are discounted and compared to outlays
    • Internal Rate of Return (IRR): The discount rate makes the net present value of investment
  • Information needed
    • Investments
    • Sales price and sales volume
    • Variable costs
    • Timing (time to market, ramp-up, erosion)
    • Discount rate
    • For prediction: probability distributions
 
Predict: Technology Roadmapping
  • Visual portrait
  • Linking markets, products, technologies, and/or R&D projects
  • Plotted on a timeline
 
"Rational choices involves two guesses: a guess about uncertain future consequences, and a guess about uncertain future preferences" - James March
 
 

Diskussion